HMES 2013 Agenda: Disasters and forecasting

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Disasters and forecasting

The Philippines:

Forecasting with confidence

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, it was suggested to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its Doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.

It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely attribute the powerful rains and killer floods to monsoons, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy). More > >

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HMES Agenda on Prevention Web

Forecasting with confidence

This paper addresses the gain the Philippine scientific community can get from the positive, constructive use of precedents, models, patterns and trends. It highlights the Global Scale Wave Model (GSWM), put up by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) to provide a better understanding and forward perspectives on hydrologic movements around the world, and the GEO System of Systems of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO), from where countries and institutions can cull a huge amount of data about geohazards, past and forthcoming disasters. It argues for all these sources of data to be able to guide weather, seismic and volcanic activity forecasting around the world.

View full document [PDF 1.44 MB]

Letter from the UN

Dear HMES Organizers,

With reference to your email dated 22 November, please note that the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, along with other agencies, funds, and programmes of the United Nations are supporting the people and government of the Philippines. The UN is helping communities and local governments recover from the disaster, build back safer and avoid relapses while strengthening resilience.

United Nations efforts are designed to support the Government of the Philippines response to the immediate humanitarian needs of the people affected by Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda), and complements the Government’s Yolanda Rehabilitation and Recovery Plan.

In this regards, the UN welcomes country-led efforts to improve hazard mapping and preparedness, and has been engaged in multi-year support in these areas. UN agencies in country and in the region are working with national geospatial and statistical agencies on improving GIS and risk mapping at the community level.

Your efforts to contribute to improve disaster preparedness are welcome. Committed citizens are needed to raise awareness and to join this effort. I therefore encourage you to engage in ongoing national and regional initiatives on disaster risk reduction.

Sincerely,

The Director

Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs

United Nations

Geneva

Distraction brought by fighting Climate Change

After the 2005 Hyogo Conference, scientists urged the United Nations to consider that the various conflicting issues surrounding Climate Change is "distracting governments" from providing solutions to threats of disasters worldwide.

"The current UN focus on "fighting climate change," as illustrated in the Nov. 27 UN Development Programme's Human Development Report, is distracting governments from adapting to the threat of inevitable natural climate changes, whatever forms they may take. National and international planning for such changes is needed, with a focus on helping our most vulnerable citizens adapt to conditions that lie ahead. Attempts to prevent global climate change from occurring are ultimately futile, and constitute a tragic misallocation of resources that would be better spent on humanity's real and pressing problems."

A letter written to UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon ventilated sentiments of scientists and technology experts on the issue of focusing deeper into finding means to adapt to the threat of climate change.

Global Geohazard System - extended discussion

Environmental Risks, Forecasting

View in pdf form or download file from here

Supersites (eathquake sites) of the world scientific community has a interactive map showing the areas where big earthquakes are predicted to happen. Click the image to visit Supersites:

The forecast of members of the scientific community that massive casualties will be experienced in the next big disaster that will hit the Philippines is accurate.

One of the greatest concerns is that the target of the next big one is the Philippines national capital region: Metropolitan Manila. With a nighttime population of more than 12 million, in daytime Metro Manila has a population volume of nearly 20 million or higher during peak seasons.

Metro Manila is also home to many international agency headquarters such as the Asian Development Bank and all the home offices of foreign embassies are located in the capital region.

Too many factors can account for the exactitude and correctness of the prediction of massive casualties – not the least amongst them, the lack of state-of-the-art data and information ferreting equipment. Scientific expertise and knowhow in the use of new technology for tidal wave, weather, seismic event, volcanic eruption forecasting is not necessarily lacking in the Philippines.

However, it must be conceded that the Philippines does not have enough or adequate experience in handling satellite launch, management and earth observation operations.

To compound the problem ten-folds it is learned through the media, that intervention by interest groups in purveying vital data to the public about earthquake faults, the shameless impunity with which big companies are shunting regulations against building big structures on top of sites highly vulnerable to earthquake faults, also compound the danger of the Philippines suffering a large multitude of people getting killed during a big disaster incident involving the shaking of the Marikina West Valley Fault System. More > >

The Global Geohazard System

Crisis Mapping

In 2008 we determined to create a full-function Crisis Mapping project. This was borne out of the persistent eruption of hostilities in Southern Philippines between both communist - Islamist groups on one side and the government on the other. Fresh from the experience at confronting an incorrigible troublemaker such as the Juma'a Abu Sayyap, or more popularly known as Abu Sayyaf, we resolved to push stakeholders to join in formulating the Philippine conflicts crisis map.

This is modeled after the U.S.-Euro academe's successful crime and peacekeeping mapping efforts that had led to wide acceptance and invited broad-based support from as many sectors and as many countries as possible.

After all, the value of life is such that people and institutions, states and combines will pay as high a price as possible for the safety of both individuals and enclaves of people. More > >

Themes: #Yolanda, CEOS, disaster, forecasting, Geohazards Mapping, GGOS, hydro geo risks, ICRC, public warning, satellite, seismology, storm surge, terror, tidal wave, tsunami, typhoon, UN, UNISDR, volcano

Saturday, December 28, 2013

Disasters and forecasting

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