Disasters and forecasting

The Philippines:

Forecasting with confidence

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, it was suggested to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its Doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.

It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely attribute the powerful rains and killer floods to monsoons, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy).  More  >  >

Yuletide Greetings!!!

Conference Agenda

Agenda

Geo Hazards Mapping and Environment Summit

HMES 2014 Manila

Protocol

Shift in policy regimes:

·   Factor natural phenomena and natural emissions in addition to industrial caused Greenhouse Gases (GHG) into Disaster and Climate Change risk parameters

·   All natural and man-made land deformations or wetlands defacements including altering life and inorganic objects therein should be seriously studied and factored into future Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) activities

·   Signing Declaration to observe 2014 as International Hazard Mapping Year

·   Signing Declaration for observing December 2014 and of every year thereafter as the Disaster Risk Reduction Month

·   Signing Declaration for observing December 17 on 2014 and on every year thereafter as the International Hazards Awareness Day

·   Signing expanded agreements between UN, member nations on sharing of GIS on disasters and information from outer space

·   Signing of Declaration for priority humanitarian care for disabled persons and waiver of immigration regulations in major disasters

·   Balancing campaign for community resilience with tagging of non buildable areas and relocation of communities directly in the path of disasters, extremely hazardous earthquake faults or liquefaction sites, other risk vulnerable places

Resolving Post-Yolanda Settlement Concerns

The following executive brief of the proposal for funding for a housing project for Yolanda and future victims of calamities is shown below. It was also published in our social networking site. See here.

The Post-Yolanda Housing Situation in the Philippines

A reported 300 Kph-strong, hurricane category 5 tropical cyclone hit the Philippines on November 8, 2013 and devastated a large number of areas located within nine (9) administrative Regions of the country.

The final report on the actual scientific and technical analysis and assessment of this natural phenomenon - its true levels of strength at various stages, identifiable patterns of emergence (if any), and other factors, will take some more time, however the situation on the ground of those that were affected by the disaster needs immediate attention.

HMES Papers a(2)

Eastern Visayas: Hardest hit area during Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)

As earlier stated in this site: "The level of confidence with which government addresses the challenges of disaster forecasting is extremely low.

"It appears that even being able to obtain certain satellite data about a tropical cyclone’s strength, and the inevitable accompanying storm surges as in New York and other parts of USA very recently, due to inferiority the PAGASA cannot shout out its warnings to the public loud enough so the people can feel the poignant threat of what is going to hit them and at what point in time in the near future."

Furthermore, as in the case of Tropical Cyclone Ketsana (Ondoy), the Zamboanga City Siege, the Haiyan (Yolanda), among other disasters, there are a lot of dubious, suspicious, highly contradictory statements and acts by government.

HMES Papers a(1)

If you warn them and they keep on sinning and refuse to repent, they will die in their sins. But you will have saved your life because you did what you were told to do. If good people turn bad and don't listen to my warning, they will die. If you did not warn them of the consequences, then they will die in their sins. Their previous good deeds won't help them, and I will hold you responsible, demanding your blood for theirs. But if you warn them and they repent, they will live, and you will have saved your own life, too. . . Some of them will listen, but some will ignore you, for they are rebels.

<< Ezekiel 3:18-22 >>

For I was hungry, and you didn't feed me. I was thirsty, and you didn't give me anything to drink. 43 I was a stranger, and you didn't invite me into your home. I was naked, and you gave me no clothing. I was sick and in prison, and you didn't visit me.' 44 "Then they will reply, 'Lord, when did we ever see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and not help you?' 45 And he will answer, 'I assure you, when you refused to help the least of these my brothers and sisters, you were refusing to help me.'

<< Matthew 25:41Matthew 25:42-45 Matthew 25:46 >>

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, we have been goading the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical cyclone Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.

New prospects and directions

The recent disaster in Visayas as shown in the photos below from open sources, galvanized our resolve to take new directions and work on new prospects. We will do our share in the rebuilding of these lost social enclaves in all of 9 regions, formerly lively, dynamic, alive and healthily breathing communities now reduced to tatters, broken down to no-man's lands.

Letter from the Philippines to the Secretary General of the United Nations

Open Letter to the United Nations


November 21, 2013

HIS EXCELLENCY
BAN KI MOON
Secretary General
The United Nations
UN Headquarters
First Avenue at 46th Street
New York, NY 10017
USA


Dearest Secretary General Ban:


Our warmest greetings!

Kindly please understand, I had seriously debated on whether to send this communication to you or not. I decided on going through with it since I believe that the result would turn out for the better. Nothing that transpired in the past has diminished nor degraded my respect and love for the UN. I have no intention in demeaning anyone's position or creating anything negative between myself, my group and the UN even if that can't be helped, but this has to be done, and I shall humbly embrace the consequences of my act.

After tropical cyclone Haiyan aka Yolanda, not a surprising lot of relief organizations are now helping in Tacloban, in the towns of Leyte, Samar, Cebu, Bohol, Capiz, Aklan, even parts of Mindanao. Entire states committed volumes of resources to come to the aid of the Philippines. As published in the media, the Philippine Government stated that the affected areas include nine (9) Regions in the entire archipelago that consists of seventeen (17) Regions, with three (3) Regions being small and newly created divisions that were fairly recently separated by Special Law (CAR, ARMM and Caraga). It is presumed that all of these relief organizations and representatives of their own countries are operating out of the goodness of heart and the desire to be of sincere help to the people of Tacloban City, the municipalities of Leyte, Samar, Cebu, Bohol, Capiz, Aklan, portions of Mindanao. Although some are at a loss to convince others of their intentions: "just wait... in due time we are convince you of our legitimaty."

Some of these relief organizations are part and parcel of the United Nations organization. Be that as it may, most or all of these organizations anyway, under the principle that all states are municipalities embraced by the founding charter of League of Nations that is now the United Nations, are governed under the auspices of the august body that you head. The people of Tacloban City and the rest of the areas affected by the tropical cyclone Haiyan aka Yolanda, are grateful for all of the help of the UN, the honorable member states under it and the public sector as well as private relief groups that are now helping. More > >

Will there be more Killer Quakes?

From over 40 casualties, the death toll has risen to nearly 100 in the Carmen, Bohol Province-Cebu City earthquake. At that figure, the Carmen-Cebu tremor can qualify as a Killer Quake. Cebu and nearby areas has to be declared to be in a state of calamity. There are limited manuevers that aircraft can make at the Cebu airport due to the cracking and opening up of the airport's runways.

The six million dollar question is: how many more incidents like those in Carmen, Bohol and Cebu City and the other ones in Leyte, Samar will we be expecting?

Were the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Philvolcs) prepared adequately enough with equipment to monitor ground movement, tectonic plate disturbance, the nearly 100 deaths could have been avoided. 27 Billion Philippine Pesos is earmarked for pork barrel in the 2014 General Appropriations Act out of a total expenditure program of 2.26 Trillion Philippine Pesos. Would it be difficult to allocate even half of that pork barrel budget for emergency preparedness, disaster risk reduction, equipment upgrade?

Past Warnings of Big Disaster

This site has been warning the public for more than four years since the time of the former President, Mrs. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Due to the total torpedoing of the private sector (Corinthian Gardens, Forbes Park, Dasmarinas Village, the owners of high rise condominiums at the left side of EDSA southbound, among others), of the program for predicting highly lethal effects of a major tremor in Metro Manila and the replication of this effort in many urban areas in the country by the same sector in collusion with some corrupt officials in the government, a large disaster and environmental hazards summit was proposed to be supported by the Philippine Government and the United Nations, among other institutions from many other sectors - including the non-profit (minus the Napoles et al NGOs).

Wanting responses

It is reiterated that in the time of Mrs. Arroyo, only the then Administrator of the Maritime Industry Authority (MARINA), Ms. Elaine Bautista, now Mrs. Horn, had the small effort to make an email message to the proponents of the 2010 Disaster and Environmental Hazards Mapping Summit. And that was only because the United Nations Environment Programm (UNEP)  told the former Ms. Bautista to get in touch with HMES 2010 organizing group. At the time, concurrent to her post in MARINA, Ms. Bautista was considered a friend of UNEP and a significant point person for the Philippine Government in relation to selected UNEP concerns - particularly about emergency and assistance.

When Mr. Benigno Simeon Cojuangco Aquino 3rd became President, the organizing group wrote to Ms. Corazon Juliano Soliman of the Department of Social Welfare and Development and Gen. Voltaire Tuvera Gazmin. Ms. Soliman did not respond. It was noticed however that several days later, Gen. Gazmin, the Secretary of the Department of National Defense gave an interview to national media.

Hans Sy now active in UN affairs

Mr. Hans Sy, son of SM founder Mr. Henry Sy, is now active in the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR).

Hans joined the UNISDR Private Sector Advisory Group (PSAG) and has since attended various conferences and represented the Philippines and his family's group of companies in UNISDR assemblies and functions.