Disasters and forecasting

The Philippines:

Forecasting with confidence

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, it was suggested to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its Doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.

It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely attribute the powerful rains and killer floods to monsoons, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy).  More  >  >

Yuletide Greetings!!!

Conference Agenda

Agenda

Geo Hazards Mapping and Environment Summit

HMES 2014 Manila

Protocol

Shift in policy regimes:

·   Factor natural phenomena and natural emissions in addition to industrial caused Greenhouse Gases (GHG) into Disaster and Climate Change risk parameters

·   All natural and man-made land deformations or wetlands defacements including altering life and inorganic objects therein should be seriously studied and factored into future Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) activities

·   Signing Declaration to observe 2014 as International Hazard Mapping Year

·   Signing Declaration for observing December 2014 and of every year thereafter as the Disaster Risk Reduction Month

·   Signing Declaration for observing December 17 on 2014 and on every year thereafter as the International Hazards Awareness Day

·   Signing expanded agreements between UN, member nations on sharing of GIS on disasters and information from outer space

·   Signing of Declaration for priority humanitarian care for disabled persons and waiver of immigration regulations in major disasters

·   Balancing campaign for community resilience with tagging of non buildable areas and relocation of communities directly in the path of disasters, extremely hazardous earthquake faults or liquefaction sites, other risk vulnerable places

Resolving Post-Yolanda Settlement Concerns

The following executive brief of the proposal for funding for a housing project for Yolanda and future victims of calamities is shown below. It was also published in our social networking site. See here.

The Post-Yolanda Housing Situation in the Philippines

A reported 300 Kph-strong, hurricane category 5 tropical cyclone hit the Philippines on November 8, 2013 and devastated a large number of areas located within nine (9) administrative Regions of the country.

The final report on the actual scientific and technical analysis and assessment of this natural phenomenon - its true levels of strength at various stages, identifiable patterns of emergence (if any), and other factors, will take some more time, however the situation on the ground of those that were affected by the disaster needs immediate attention.

HMES Papers a(2)

Eastern Visayas: Hardest hit area during Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)

As earlier stated in this site: "The level of confidence with which government addresses the challenges of disaster forecasting is extremely low.

"It appears that even being able to obtain certain satellite data about a tropical cyclone’s strength, and the inevitable accompanying storm surges as in New York and other parts of USA very recently, due to inferiority the PAGASA cannot shout out its warnings to the public loud enough so the people can feel the poignant threat of what is going to hit them and at what point in time in the near future."

Furthermore, as in the case of Tropical Cyclone Ketsana (Ondoy), the Zamboanga City Siege, the Haiyan (Yolanda), among other disasters, there are a lot of dubious, suspicious, highly contradictory statements and acts by government.

HMES Papers a(1)

If you warn them and they keep on sinning and refuse to repent, they will die in their sins. But you will have saved your life because you did what you were told to do. If good people turn bad and don't listen to my warning, they will die. If you did not warn them of the consequences, then they will die in their sins. Their previous good deeds won't help them, and I will hold you responsible, demanding your blood for theirs. But if you warn them and they repent, they will live, and you will have saved your own life, too. . . Some of them will listen, but some will ignore you, for they are rebels.

<< Ezekiel 3:18-22 >>

For I was hungry, and you didn't feed me. I was thirsty, and you didn't give me anything to drink. 43 I was a stranger, and you didn't invite me into your home. I was naked, and you gave me no clothing. I was sick and in prison, and you didn't visit me.' 44 "Then they will reply, 'Lord, when did we ever see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and not help you?' 45 And he will answer, 'I assure you, when you refused to help the least of these my brothers and sisters, you were refusing to help me.'

<< Matthew 25:41Matthew 25:42-45 Matthew 25:46 >>

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, we have been goading the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical cyclone Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.