Disasters and forecasting

The Philippines:

Forecasting with confidence

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, it was suggested to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical storm Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its Doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.

It was foreseen in this site that absolutely nothing will be allowed by Typhoon Ketsana (Ondoy) to block its path. As early as the morning of the raging of this typhoon that PAGASA decided to merely attribute the powerful rains and killer floods to monsoons, it was already the consensus among the advocates that started this site that many people will die by Ketsana (Ondoy).  More  >  >

Yuletide Greetings!!!

Conference Agenda

Agenda

Geo Hazards Mapping and Environment Summit

HMES 2014 Manila

Protocol

Shift in policy regimes:

·   Factor natural phenomena and natural emissions in addition to industrial caused Greenhouse Gases (GHG) into Disaster and Climate Change risk parameters

·   All natural and man-made land deformations or wetlands defacements including altering life and inorganic objects therein should be seriously studied and factored into future Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) activities

·   Signing Declaration to observe 2014 as International Hazard Mapping Year

·   Signing Declaration for observing December 2014 and of every year thereafter as the Disaster Risk Reduction Month

·   Signing Declaration for observing December 17 on 2014 and on every year thereafter as the International Hazards Awareness Day

·   Signing expanded agreements between UN, member nations on sharing of GIS on disasters and information from outer space

·   Signing of Declaration for priority humanitarian care for disabled persons and waiver of immigration regulations in major disasters

·   Balancing campaign for community resilience with tagging of non buildable areas and relocation of communities directly in the path of disasters, extremely hazardous earthquake faults or liquefaction sites, other risk vulnerable places

Resolving Post-Yolanda Settlement Concerns

The following executive brief of the proposal for funding for a housing project for Yolanda and future victims of calamities is shown below. It was also published in our social networking site. See here.

The Post-Yolanda Housing Situation in the Philippines

A reported 300 Kph-strong, hurricane category 5 tropical cyclone hit the Philippines on November 8, 2013 and devastated a large number of areas located within nine (9) administrative Regions of the country.

The final report on the actual scientific and technical analysis and assessment of this natural phenomenon - its true levels of strength at various stages, identifiable patterns of emergence (if any), and other factors, will take some more time, however the situation on the ground of those that were affected by the disaster needs immediate attention.

HMES Papers a(2)

Eastern Visayas: Hardest hit area during Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda)

As earlier stated in this site: "The level of confidence with which government addresses the challenges of disaster forecasting is extremely low.

"It appears that even being able to obtain certain satellite data about a tropical cyclone’s strength, and the inevitable accompanying storm surges as in New York and other parts of USA very recently, due to inferiority the PAGASA cannot shout out its warnings to the public loud enough so the people can feel the poignant threat of what is going to hit them and at what point in time in the near future."

Furthermore, as in the case of Tropical Cyclone Ketsana (Ondoy), the Zamboanga City Siege, the Haiyan (Yolanda), among other disasters, there are a lot of dubious, suspicious, highly contradictory statements and acts by government.

HMES Papers a(1)

If you warn them and they keep on sinning and refuse to repent, they will die in their sins. But you will have saved your life because you did what you were told to do. If good people turn bad and don't listen to my warning, they will die. If you did not warn them of the consequences, then they will die in their sins. Their previous good deeds won't help them, and I will hold you responsible, demanding your blood for theirs. But if you warn them and they repent, they will live, and you will have saved your own life, too. . . Some of them will listen, but some will ignore you, for they are rebels.

<< Ezekiel 3:18-22 >>

For I was hungry, and you didn't feed me. I was thirsty, and you didn't give me anything to drink. 43 I was a stranger, and you didn't invite me into your home. I was naked, and you gave me no clothing. I was sick and in prison, and you didn't visit me.' 44 "Then they will reply, 'Lord, when did we ever see you hungry or thirsty or a stranger or naked or sick or in prison, and not help you?' 45 And he will answer, 'I assure you, when you refused to help the least of these my brothers and sisters, you were refusing to help me.'

<< Matthew 25:41Matthew 25:42-45 Matthew 25:46 >>

Self-doubting prophecy

For nearly five years ago today, we have been goading the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) to enhance its satellite capability instead of simply getting hand-me-down issuances from UN OOSA (United Nations Outer Space Affairs and the NOAA (United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and the other geospatial information and intelligence agencies all over the world.

At a certain point in time around the period of the occurrence of the devastation by tropical cyclone Ketsana (Ondoy) in the Philippines, the PAGASA was clamoring for the purchase and installation of its doppler radar system, an outmoded and unreliable system for weather forecasting.

In 2010, all throughout the government circuit, the company of Mr. Philip King called AAA, went on a lecture-presentation effort to sell the sensing and image capture technology developed by a Malaysian scientist and technology specialist who was also engaged in a similar high technology, extensive venture for the government of Canada, among other countries.

Had the Department of Science and Technology considered using a network of sensing stations with clear-photo capture capability on a 1-camera-per-station (or possibly a cluster of cameras), weather forecasting in the country, aided with charity hand-outs from NOAA, UNOOSA, the European Union, among other satellite capable agencies, will definitely be more precise at the same time vivid and viewable in real time.

New prospects and directions

The recent disaster in Visayas as shown in the photos below from open sources, galvanized our resolve to take new directions and work on new prospects. We will do our share in the rebuilding of these lost social enclaves in all of 9 regions, formerly lively, dynamic, alive and healthily breathing communities now reduced to tatters, broken down to no-man's lands.

Letter from the Philippines to the Secretary General of the United Nations

Open Letter to the United Nations


November 21, 2013

HIS EXCELLENCY
BAN KI MOON
Secretary General
The United Nations
UN Headquarters
First Avenue at 46th Street
New York, NY 10017
USA


Dearest Secretary General Ban:


Our warmest greetings!

Kindly please understand, I had seriously debated on whether to send this communication to you or not. I decided on going through with it since I believe that the result would turn out for the better. Nothing that transpired in the past has diminished nor degraded my respect and love for the UN. I have no intention in demeaning anyone's position or creating anything negative between myself, my group and the UN even if that can't be helped, but this has to be done, and I shall humbly embrace the consequences of my act.

After tropical cyclone Haiyan aka Yolanda, not a surprising lot of relief organizations are now helping in Tacloban, in the towns of Leyte, Samar, Cebu, Bohol, Capiz, Aklan, even parts of Mindanao. Entire states committed volumes of resources to come to the aid of the Philippines. As published in the media, the Philippine Government stated that the affected areas include nine (9) Regions in the entire archipelago that consists of seventeen (17) Regions, with three (3) Regions being small and newly created divisions that were fairly recently separated by Special Law (CAR, ARMM and Caraga). It is presumed that all of these relief organizations and representatives of their own countries are operating out of the goodness of heart and the desire to be of sincere help to the people of Tacloban City, the municipalities of Leyte, Samar, Cebu, Bohol, Capiz, Aklan, portions of Mindanao. Although some are at a loss to convince others of their intentions: "just wait... in due time we are convince you of our legitimaty."

Some of these relief organizations are part and parcel of the United Nations organization. Be that as it may, most or all of these organizations anyway, under the principle that all states are municipalities embraced by the founding charter of League of Nations that is now the United Nations, are governed under the auspices of the august body that you head. The people of Tacloban City and the rest of the areas affected by the tropical cyclone Haiyan aka Yolanda, are grateful for all of the help of the UN, the honorable member states under it and the public sector as well as private relief groups that are now helping. More > >

Will there be more Killer Quakes?

From over 40 casualties, the death toll has risen to nearly 100 in the Carmen, Bohol Province-Cebu City earthquake. At that figure, the Carmen-Cebu tremor can qualify as a Killer Quake. Cebu and nearby areas has to be declared to be in a state of calamity. There are limited manuevers that aircraft can make at the Cebu airport due to the cracking and opening up of the airport's runways.

The six million dollar question is: how many more incidents like those in Carmen, Bohol and Cebu City and the other ones in Leyte, Samar will we be expecting?

Were the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Philvolcs) prepared adequately enough with equipment to monitor ground movement, tectonic plate disturbance, the nearly 100 deaths could have been avoided. 27 Billion Philippine Pesos is earmarked for pork barrel in the 2014 General Appropriations Act out of a total expenditure program of 2.26 Trillion Philippine Pesos. Would it be difficult to allocate even half of that pork barrel budget for emergency preparedness, disaster risk reduction, equipment upgrade?

Past Warnings of Big Disaster

This site has been warning the public for more than four years since the time of the former President, Mrs. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. Due to the total torpedoing of the private sector (Corinthian Gardens, Forbes Park, Dasmarinas Village, the owners of high rise condominiums at the left side of EDSA southbound, among others), of the program for predicting highly lethal effects of a major tremor in Metro Manila and the replication of this effort in many urban areas in the country by the same sector in collusion with some corrupt officials in the government, a large disaster and environmental hazards summit was proposed to be supported by the Philippine Government and the United Nations, among other institutions from many other sectors - including the non-profit (minus the Napoles et al NGOs).

Wanting responses

It is reiterated that in the time of Mrs. Arroyo, only the then Administrator of the Maritime Industry Authority (MARINA), Ms. Elaine Bautista, now Mrs. Horn, had the small effort to make an email message to the proponents of the 2010 Disaster and Environmental Hazards Mapping Summit. And that was only because the United Nations Environment Programm (UNEP)  told the former Ms. Bautista to get in touch with HMES 2010 organizing group. At the time, concurrent to her post in MARINA, Ms. Bautista was considered a friend of UNEP and a significant point person for the Philippine Government in relation to selected UNEP concerns - particularly about emergency and assistance.

When Mr. Benigno Simeon Cojuangco Aquino 3rd became President, the organizing group wrote to Ms. Corazon Juliano Soliman of the Department of Social Welfare and Development and Gen. Voltaire Tuvera Gazmin. Ms. Soliman did not respond. It was noticed however that several days later, Gen. Gazmin, the Secretary of the Department of National Defense gave an interview to national media.

Hans Sy now active in UN affairs

Mr. Hans Sy, son of SM founder Mr. Henry Sy, is now active in the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR).

Hans joined the UNISDR Private Sector Advisory Group (PSAG) and has since attended various conferences and represented the Philippines and his family's group of companies in UNISDR assemblies and functions.

Contingency Planning Summit

Severe space storm coming

As if Hurricane Katrina in the US, iceberg meltdown in the North Pole, the Typhoons Frank, Ondoy, Pepeng, Lupit in the Philippines and the tsunamis of Southeast Asia were not enough, the world has to prepare from between 2010 - 2013 for severe space storms caused by what NASA predicted as solar maximum occurrence similar to the solar storm British astronomer Richard Carrington observed in 1859.NASA reports that:

The 1859 storm - known as the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare -- electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could case $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society's high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused "only $80 to 125 billion in damage. See the NASA forecast here

The need to plot strategies, programs, plans and target activities for when this event will happen is the reason for the 2010 Geo Hazard Mapping and Environment Summit. Despite the HMES 2010 advocacy to strengthen the gathering of information from outer space, using high technology implements, there is absolutely no contradiction to proposing measures to undertake mapping while knowing fully well about the forthcoming severe space event.

HMES 2010 is merely a pro-active measure to produce a wholly functional cooperation on creating the road map today for what is to take place between 2010 or 2011 up to 2013.While it is true that GIS could be reliant upon information from outer space, the heart of the HMES 2010 conference is to plot out a mechanism whereby a highly usable hazard map would be drawn today, before the space storms happen and other more dangerous disasters take place and put in place special contingency plans for unveiling and assembling properly stored devices unharmed from the effects of the magnetic storm. For all purposes and intents, the replacement equipment and infrastructure might be downgrades of the original structure destroyed by the solar calamity, making do with earth based remote sensing and even line of sight data and digital video transmission, at least the world will not be blind.

The organizers of HMES 2010 envisioned creating from out of the existing world geo hazard map, a back up hazard GIS and response plan that will be maximum safe kept -- possibly in a demagnetized environment -- and taken out when the Carrington-event type of disaster or the combination of that event and other calamities strikes the planet.

All measures relevant to humanitarian assistance should already be laid out in advance and implemented to a T at the appointed time.

Since this is not easily done without proper consensus, UN member nations must agree to the proposal, vote as one and willingly sign the attendant declaration of solidarity.

———————————————————————

Possibly related articles:

• Solar storm: Preparing satellite infrastructure
  
• Disaster Scenarios on a solar super storm
  
• Scientists on solar super storm
  
• SunEarthDay - NASA: Some Good News On The Solar Super Storm

Letter to the United Nations Secretary General

October 31, 2009

HIS EXCELLENCY
BAN KI-MOON
Secretary General
United Nations

Dear Mr. Secretary General:

Greetings!

Every 5th of June since 1972 is commemorated by the United Nations as the World Environment Day.

In 2010-2011, scientists report that there will be a solar maximum that has not occurred since fifty years ago as reported in this article from Science@NASA:

a (solar) storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958. Read more about it here

This and other factors will result in major disasters during the period in question. Our group of professionals advocating environment protection and disaster damage diminution respectfully request the United Nations to support our effort to organize a Geo Hazard Mapping and Environment Summit in 2010 and we are determined that this gathering be convened in Manila, Philippines.

In this connection, may we respectfully request the following:

1. United Nations and its concerned departments participate in the Summit and help in organizing said event
2. The Year 2010 be declared as the International Geo Hazard Mapping Year
3. The month of April 2010 be declared as the International Disaster Risk Reduction Month; and finally,
4. The date of April 17, 2010 be declared as the first World Hazards Awareness Day.

That these declarations be formally announced in Manila prior to the Summit.

Thank you ever so much! Mabuhay!!!

Respectfully yours,



Organizers HMES 2010

Local People Starting To Move

Politics and Science should meet

On Monday, October 26, 2009, the ABS-CBN News Channel (ANC) held an ANC Forum dubbed as “Wired for Disasters”. Figures from the academe and science were invited by ANC and participated in the forum. The ABS-CBN website published a brief item about the forum on the internet.

Mahar Lagmay of the University of the Philippines National Institute of Geological Sciences (UP-NIGS) said that they are developing a map of flood-prone areas with the help of UP-NIGS research assistants and the Ateneo de Manila University's Manila Observatory.

The map will serve as a warning in future disasters. Lagmay said, "That [Ondoy disaster] happened because we were not aware that that kind of disaster could happen."

DENR on Climate Change Act

Department of Environment and Natural Resources Secretary Jose L. Atienza, Jr. says:

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE CLIMATE CHANGE LAW – SEC. LITO ATIENZA

October 26, 2009

The Climate Change Act of 2009, which President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo signed into law, puts local government units into the center stage of governance, given the important roles city, town, and barangay leaders play in the implementation of whatever plans and programs on climate change adaptation and mitigation measures that will be crafted by a body tasked under the new law.

The substance and efficacy of Republic Act (RA) 9729 will only be as good as those executing climate change measures. The new law may even be a potent tool in bringing about a stronger green-minded electorate because of the centrality to local elected officials in mainstreaming the climate change agenda into their platforms of governance at the provincial and down to the barangay level.

See more about Sec. Atienza's post here...

Policy Regime Change, Re-engineering

Climate part of still bigger problem

My colleague Earl, one of the organizers of HMES 2010, recently visiting from Kuala Lumpur complains:

• They are building a high rise tower in Shaw Boulevard. The edge of the building is the very edge of the sidewalk, hugging the street with all the affection it can give.
  
• Who approved that kind of design? Who gave permission for that building to be built?
  
• Look at Manila Water and Maynilad, they've been cutting all streets in several pieces and not returning them to their original shape. And the MWSS and MMDA, the DPWH doesn't care about sewerages. Just keep building the streets, repairing, rebuilding, but all for terrible waste of public funds.
  
• That kind of mentality makes people here prone to risk, danger, disaster, etc., etc.
  
• Back in Malaysia, you look at the streets, they're all wide and spacious and no buildings impose themselves on the streets nor on the sidewalks.
  
• Now in Malaysia, all permits for building are evaluated through the criteria of Green Technology. That's how they are now in Malaysia.
  
• The Philippines is doing the opposite; clearly we are headed for bigger disasters in the future.

Returning from Japan last year, Mr. Michael Buquid says: "They build their streets, bridges, etc. differently in Japan. They build them in layers and layers that when it rains, you can't even see water piling up to a few millimeters on the street surface. All of the rainwater get's soaked up inside the layers. It might be raining hard in Tokyo streets and bridges, but you can see the surface. No rain piles up on top. Amazing!"

And of course we were told long ago how a Japanese architect instructed a local contractor: "You Filipinos build street first. Then when remember, you build sewer. Japan, many years ago already, we do not first build street; we build sewer. If sewer working, we put street on top." Good. But that was said in 1990. It is now 2009.

Well, one doesn't have to go all that far. In Sendakan, that is only a stone's throw away from one of the Philippines' last island in the far Southerns, Taganak Island (it's so small you wonder how they even got a Chinese Mayor there), they're so environment conscious. Sendakan people have been very guarding and protective of their home towns and home province and the even birds frequent their place. That made them a bird watchers' paradise. They earn so much tourist revenues just from bird watchers. I'm even writing a book slowly about that subject.

Some coordination the soon-to-be created, new Climate Change Commission will be doing indeed.

And what about the Philippine version of the Japanese buraku min who thrive in our own sewerages and the sewers and other areas underneath bridges?